{ "note": "Confluence (\"do the methods agree, and is the agreement information?\") on the definitive century ledger — 1,468,974 graded claims in 45,439 (instrument, as_of) cells, 852,053 confluence events. Everything here restates reports/confluence/century.json (generated 2026-08-17T17:49:11.229488+00:00) and reports/confluence/surrogate_report.json; no number is new. The partition chain is the headline: 81 measured rules collapse to 33 lineages, 19 doctrinal witnesses, and 7 final voices once empirical co-targeting merges (co-rate >= 0.5 on >= 200 joint cells) are applied — the corpus is ~7 methods wearing 81 names. `co_targeting_pairs` is the \"measuring the same thing in different ways\" table: co_rate = share of cells where both rules are active in the same channel and target the same date/level/direction. The three in-ledger nulls per order: (1) independence prior (realised vs prior_mean -> lift), (2) best member (best_member_lift; event_minus_best_lift is the cluster's surplus over its own best rule), (3) product of marginals (all_right_rate vs prod_marginal_mean -> agreement_excess). label_shuffle shows the same +11pp order-2+ surplus under randomly shuffled rule labels — the surplus is a density artifact, not doctrine — and the surrogate block prices it on markets where nothing is real.", "generated": "2026-08-17", "sources": { "century": "reports/confluence/century.json", "surrogates": "reports/confluence/surrogate_report.json", "ledger": "reports/walkforward/deep_latest.ledger.jsonl", "century_generated_at_utc": "2026-08-17T17:49:11.229488+00:00" }, "totals": { "rows": 1468974, "cells": 45439, "events_total": 852053, "against_rule_pairs": 1, "n_rules": 81 }, "merge_constants": { "MERGE_CO_RATE": 0.5, "MERGE_MIN_CELLS": 200, "shuffle_seeds": [ 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 ] }, "witness_chain": [ { "layer": "measured rules", "count": 81 }, { "layer": "lineage_only (same source lineage)", "count": 33 }, { "layer": "doctrinal (SHARES_CONSTRUCTION / SHARES_MECHANISM edges)", "count": 19 }, { "layer": "primary: doctrinal + empirical merges (co-rate >= 0.5 on >= 200 joint cells)", "count": 7 }, { "layer": "axis_sensitivity (coarsest axis view)", "count": 2 } ], "partitions": { "lineage_only": { "n_rules": 81, "n_witnesses": 33, "witnesses": { "cole.accumulation_levels": [ "cole.accumulation_levels", "cole.combination_average", "cole.diagonal_resistance" ], "cowan.square_of_twelve_time": [ "cowan.square_of_twelve_time", "gann.law_of_12", "gann.option_life_thirds" ], "gann.form_reading.fourth_test": [ "gann.form_reading.fourth_test", "gann.form_reading.overbalance", "gann.form_reading.trend_lines" ], "gann.halfway_retracement": [ "gann.halfway_retracement", "gann.reaction_entries" ], "gann.master_calculator": [ "gann.master_calculator", "gann.time_cycles", "jenkins.three_quarter_week_cycle" ], "gann.natural_square_placement": [ "gann.natural_square_placement", "gann.natural_squares" ], "gann.permanent_cycle_dates": [ "gann.permanent_cycle_dates", "gann.permanent_cycle_reversal" ], "gann.squaring.bottom.monthly": [ "gann.squaring.bottom.monthly", "gann.squaring.bottom.weekly", "gann.squaring.price_time_balance.monthly", "gann.squaring.price_time_balance.weekly", "gann.squaring.range.daily", "gann.squaring.range.weekly", "gann.squaring.top.daily", "gann.squaring.top.weekly", "jenkins.market_tells_you" ], "gann.weekly_double_top": [ "gann.weekly_double_top", "gann.weekly_reaction_timing" ], "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly": [ "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_four", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_nine", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_four", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_nine" ], "hambidge.continued_reciprocal": [ "hambidge.continued_reciprocal", "hambidge.dynamic_symmetry" ], "helmholtz.impulse_selection": [ "helmholtz.impulse_selection", "helmholtz.sympathetic_resonance", "young.cycle_suppression" ], "jenkins.root_root_trailing_stop": [ "jenkins.root_root_trailing_stop", "jenkins.true_trend_line" ], "martin.angle_scale": [ "martin.angle_scale", "martin.channel_of_three", "martin.correction_duration_fifths", "martin.correction_types", "martin.proportionate_fifths", "martin.slope_index" ], "moore.breakout_entry": [ "moore.breakout_entry", "moore.swing_projection" ], "nelson.planetary_confluence": [ "nelson.planetary_confluence", "nirenstein.three_body_alignment" ], "nirenstein.node_projection": [ "nirenstein.node_projection", "nirenstein.polar_ellipse" ], "pickell_daniel.circumscribed_objective": [ "pickell_daniel.circumscribed_objective", "pickell_daniel.market_scale_weights" ], "woods.breakout_projection": [ "woods.breakout_projection", "woods.campaign_statistics", "woods.demand_area", "woods.flag_staff", "woods.master_45_year", "woods.measuring_gap", "woods.normal_reaction", "woods.resistance_point_chart", "woods.weekly_sequence" ], "wyler.free_volume": [ "wyler.free_volume", "wyler.kinetic_energy", "wyler.momentum_state" ] }, "singletons": [ "cowan.venus_pentagonal_square", "cycloid.compound_closure", "gann.angles_pitched", "gann.phase_inversion", "gann.seasonal_time_periods", "jenkins.ninety_day_trend", "nirenstein.master_partitions", "nirenstein.mean_retracement", "nirenstein.sensitive_numbers", "nirenstein.wave_superposition", "sepharial.kabalism_of_cycles", "shirk.five_audited_cycles", "stabilizing.excess_demand_ratio" ] }, "doctrinal": { "n_rules": 81, "n_witnesses": 19, "witnesses": { "cole.accumulation_levels": [ "cole.accumulation_levels", "cole.combination_average", "cole.diagonal_resistance", "gann.angles_pitched", "gann.form_reading.fourth_test", "gann.form_reading.overbalance", "gann.form_reading.trend_lines", "martin.angle_scale", "martin.channel_of_three", "martin.correction_duration_fifths", "martin.correction_types", "martin.proportionate_fifths", "martin.slope_index", "moore.breakout_entry", "moore.swing_projection", "pickell_daniel.circumscribed_objective", "pickell_daniel.market_scale_weights", "woods.breakout_projection", "woods.campaign_statistics", "woods.demand_area", "woods.flag_staff", "woods.master_45_year", "woods.measuring_gap", "woods.normal_reaction", "woods.resistance_point_chart", "woods.weekly_sequence", "wyler.free_volume", "wyler.kinetic_energy", "wyler.momentum_state" ], "cowan.square_of_twelve_time": [ "cowan.square_of_twelve_time", "gann.law_of_12", "gann.option_life_thirds", "gann.squaring.bottom.monthly", "gann.squaring.bottom.weekly", "gann.squaring.price_time_balance.monthly", "gann.squaring.price_time_balance.weekly", "gann.squaring.range.daily", "gann.squaring.range.weekly", "gann.squaring.top.daily", "gann.squaring.top.weekly", "jenkins.market_tells_you" ], "cycloid.compound_closure": [ "cycloid.compound_closure", "nirenstein.wave_superposition" ], "gann.halfway_retracement": [ "gann.halfway_retracement", "gann.master_calculator", "gann.reaction_entries", "gann.time_cycles", "jenkins.three_quarter_week_cycle", "nirenstein.master_partitions" ], "gann.natural_square_placement": [ "gann.natural_square_placement", "gann.natural_squares", "gann.seasonal_time_periods", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_four", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_nine", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_four", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_nine" ], "gann.permanent_cycle_dates": [ "gann.permanent_cycle_dates", "gann.permanent_cycle_reversal" ], "gann.weekly_double_top": [ "gann.weekly_double_top", "gann.weekly_reaction_timing" ], "hambidge.continued_reciprocal": [ "hambidge.continued_reciprocal", "hambidge.dynamic_symmetry", "nirenstein.mean_retracement" ], "helmholtz.impulse_selection": [ "helmholtz.impulse_selection", "helmholtz.sympathetic_resonance", "young.cycle_suppression" ], "jenkins.root_root_trailing_stop": [ "jenkins.root_root_trailing_stop", "jenkins.true_trend_line" ], "nelson.planetary_confluence": [ "nelson.planetary_confluence", "nirenstein.three_body_alignment" ], "nirenstein.node_projection": [ "nirenstein.node_projection", "nirenstein.polar_ellipse" ] }, "singletons": [ "cowan.venus_pentagonal_square", "gann.phase_inversion", "jenkins.ninety_day_trend", "nirenstein.sensitive_numbers", "sepharial.kabalism_of_cycles", "shirk.five_audited_cycles", "stabilizing.excess_demand_ratio" ] }, "primary_doctrinal_plus_empirical": { "n_rules": 81, "n_witnesses": 7, "witnesses": { "cole.accumulation_levels": [ "cole.accumulation_levels", "cole.combination_average", "cole.diagonal_resistance", "cowan.square_of_twelve_time", "cowan.venus_pentagonal_square", "cycloid.compound_closure", "gann.angles_pitched", "gann.form_reading.fourth_test", "gann.form_reading.overbalance", "gann.form_reading.trend_lines", "gann.halfway_retracement", "gann.law_of_12", "gann.master_calculator", "gann.natural_square_placement", "gann.natural_squares", "gann.option_life_thirds", "gann.permanent_cycle_dates", "gann.permanent_cycle_reversal", "gann.reaction_entries", "gann.seasonal_time_periods", "gann.squaring.bottom.monthly", "gann.squaring.bottom.weekly", "gann.squaring.price_time_balance.monthly", "gann.squaring.price_time_balance.weekly", "gann.squaring.range.daily", "gann.squaring.range.weekly", "gann.squaring.top.daily", "gann.squaring.top.weekly", "gann.time_cycles", "gann.weekly_double_top", "gann.weekly_reaction_timing", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_four", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_nine", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_four", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_nine", "helmholtz.impulse_selection", "helmholtz.sympathetic_resonance", "jenkins.market_tells_you", "jenkins.ninety_day_trend", "jenkins.three_quarter_week_cycle", "martin.angle_scale", "martin.channel_of_three", "martin.correction_duration_fifths", "martin.correction_types", "martin.proportionate_fifths", "martin.slope_index", "moore.breakout_entry", "moore.swing_projection", "nelson.planetary_confluence", "nirenstein.master_partitions", "nirenstein.node_projection", "nirenstein.polar_ellipse", "nirenstein.three_body_alignment", "nirenstein.wave_superposition", "pickell_daniel.circumscribed_objective", "pickell_daniel.market_scale_weights", "stabilizing.excess_demand_ratio", "woods.breakout_projection", "woods.campaign_statistics", "woods.demand_area", "woods.flag_staff", "woods.master_45_year", "woods.measuring_gap", "woods.normal_reaction", "woods.resistance_point_chart", "woods.weekly_sequence", "wyler.free_volume", "wyler.kinetic_energy", "wyler.momentum_state", "young.cycle_suppression" ], "hambidge.continued_reciprocal": [ "hambidge.continued_reciprocal", "hambidge.dynamic_symmetry", "nirenstein.mean_retracement" ], "jenkins.root_root_trailing_stop": [ "jenkins.root_root_trailing_stop", "jenkins.true_trend_line" ] }, "singletons": [ "gann.phase_inversion", "nirenstein.sensitive_numbers", "sepharial.kabalism_of_cycles", "shirk.five_audited_cycles" ] }, "axis_sensitivity": { "n_rules": 81, "n_witnesses": 2, "witnesses": { "cole.accumulation_levels": [ "cole.accumulation_levels", "cole.combination_average", "cole.diagonal_resistance", "cowan.square_of_twelve_time", "cowan.venus_pentagonal_square", "cycloid.compound_closure", "gann.angles_pitched", "gann.form_reading.fourth_test", "gann.form_reading.overbalance", "gann.form_reading.trend_lines", "gann.halfway_retracement", "gann.law_of_12", "gann.master_calculator", "gann.natural_square_placement", "gann.natural_squares", "gann.option_life_thirds", "gann.permanent_cycle_dates", "gann.permanent_cycle_reversal", "gann.phase_inversion", "gann.reaction_entries", "gann.seasonal_time_periods", "gann.squaring.bottom.monthly", "gann.squaring.bottom.weekly", "gann.squaring.price_time_balance.monthly", "gann.squaring.price_time_balance.weekly", "gann.squaring.range.daily", "gann.squaring.range.weekly", "gann.squaring.top.daily", "gann.squaring.top.weekly", "gann.time_cycles", "gann.weekly_double_top", "gann.weekly_reaction_timing", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_four", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_nine", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_four", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_nine", "hambidge.continued_reciprocal", "hambidge.dynamic_symmetry", "helmholtz.impulse_selection", "helmholtz.sympathetic_resonance", "jenkins.market_tells_you", "jenkins.ninety_day_trend", "jenkins.root_root_trailing_stop", "jenkins.three_quarter_week_cycle", "jenkins.true_trend_line", "martin.angle_scale", "martin.channel_of_three", "martin.correction_duration_fifths", "martin.correction_types", "martin.proportionate_fifths", "martin.slope_index", "moore.breakout_entry", "moore.swing_projection", "nirenstein.master_partitions", "nirenstein.mean_retracement", "nirenstein.node_projection", "nirenstein.polar_ellipse", "nirenstein.sensitive_numbers", "nirenstein.wave_superposition", "pickell_daniel.circumscribed_objective", "pickell_daniel.market_scale_weights", "shirk.five_audited_cycles", "stabilizing.excess_demand_ratio", "woods.breakout_projection", "woods.campaign_statistics", "woods.demand_area", "woods.flag_staff", "woods.master_45_year", "woods.measuring_gap", "woods.normal_reaction", "woods.resistance_point_chart", "woods.weekly_sequence", "wyler.free_volume", "wyler.kinetic_energy", "wyler.momentum_state", "young.cycle_suppression" ], "nelson.planetary_confluence": [ "nelson.planetary_confluence", "nirenstein.three_body_alignment", "sepharial.kabalism_of_cycles" ] }, "singletons": [] } }, "rule_lineages": { "cole.accumulation_levels": "cole.graphs", "cole.combination_average": "cole.graphs", "cole.diagonal_resistance": "cole.graphs", "cowan.square_of_twelve_time": "gann.grain_time_cycles", "cowan.venus_pentagonal_square": "cowan.venus_pentagram", "cycloid.compound_closure": "cycloid.closure", "gann.angles_pitched": "gann.angles", "gann.form_reading.fourth_test": "gann.form_reading", "gann.form_reading.overbalance": "gann.form_reading", "gann.form_reading.trend_lines": "gann.form_reading", "gann.halfway_retracement": "gann.options_course", "gann.law_of_12": "gann.grain_time_cycles", "gann.master_calculator": "gann.time_cycles", "gann.natural_square_placement": "gann.squares", "gann.natural_squares": "gann.squares", "gann.option_life_thirds": "gann.grain_time_cycles", "gann.permanent_cycle_dates": "gann.permanent_cycle", "gann.permanent_cycle_reversal": "gann.permanent_cycle", "gann.phase_inversion": "gann.phase_inversion", "gann.reaction_entries": "gann.options_course", "gann.seasonal_time_periods": "gann.seasonal", "gann.squaring.bottom.monthly": "gann.squaring", "gann.squaring.bottom.weekly": "gann.squaring", "gann.squaring.price_time_balance.monthly": "gann.squaring", "gann.squaring.price_time_balance.weekly": "gann.squaring", "gann.squaring.range.daily": "gann.squaring", "gann.squaring.range.weekly": "gann.squaring", "gann.squaring.top.daily": "gann.squaring", "gann.squaring.top.weekly": "gann.squaring", "gann.time_cycles": "gann.time_cycles", "gann.weekly_double_top": "gann.weekly_rules", "gann.weekly_reaction_timing": "gann.weekly_rules", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly": "gann.wheel", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_four": "gann.wheel", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_nine": "gann.wheel", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly": "gann.wheel", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_four": "gann.wheel", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_nine": "gann.wheel", "hambidge.continued_reciprocal": "hambidge", "hambidge.dynamic_symmetry": "hambidge", "helmholtz.impulse_selection": "helmholtz", "helmholtz.sympathetic_resonance": "helmholtz", "jenkins.market_tells_you": "gann.squaring", "jenkins.ninety_day_trend": "jenkins.trend_definition", "jenkins.root_root_trailing_stop": "jenkins.root_ladder", "jenkins.three_quarter_week_cycle": "gann.time_cycles", "jenkins.true_trend_line": "jenkins.root_ladder", "martin.angle_scale": "martin.trend_action", "martin.channel_of_three": "martin.trend_action", "martin.correction_duration_fifths": "martin.trend_action", "martin.correction_types": "martin.trend_action", "martin.proportionate_fifths": "martin.trend_action", "martin.slope_index": "martin.trend_action", "moore.breakout_entry": "moore", "moore.swing_projection": "moore", "nelson.planetary_confluence": "planetary.alignment", "nirenstein.master_partitions": "nirenstein.master_partitions", "nirenstein.mean_retracement": "nirenstein.means", "nirenstein.node_projection": "nirenstein.geometry", "nirenstein.polar_ellipse": "nirenstein.geometry", "nirenstein.sensitive_numbers": "nirenstein.numbers", "nirenstein.three_body_alignment": "planetary.alignment", "nirenstein.wave_superposition": "nirenstein.waves", "pickell_daniel.circumscribed_objective": "pickell_daniel", "pickell_daniel.market_scale_weights": "pickell_daniel", "sepharial.kabalism_of_cycles": "sepharial.cycles", "shirk.five_audited_cycles": "shirk.cycles_audit", "stabilizing.excess_demand_ratio": "stabilizing_1938", "woods.breakout_projection": "woods", "woods.campaign_statistics": "woods", "woods.demand_area": "woods", "woods.flag_staff": "woods", "woods.master_45_year": "woods", "woods.measuring_gap": "woods", "woods.normal_reaction": "woods", "woods.resistance_point_chart": "woods", "woods.weekly_sequence": "woods", "wyler.free_volume": "wyler", "wyler.kinetic_energy": "wyler", "wyler.momentum_state": "wyler", "young.cycle_suppression": "helmholtz" }, "record_resolution": { "gann.squaring.bottom.monthly": "gann.squaring.bottom", "gann.squaring.bottom.weekly": "gann.squaring.bottom", "gann.squaring.range.daily": "gann.squaring.range", "gann.squaring.range.weekly": "gann.squaring.range", "gann.squaring.top.daily": "gann.squaring.top", "gann.squaring.top.weekly": "gann.squaring.top", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly": "gann.wheel.date_to_price", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_four": "gann.wheel.date_to_price", "gann.wheel.date_to_price.monthly.square_of_nine": "gann.wheel.date_to_price", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly": "gann.wheel.price_to_date", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_four": "gann.wheel.price_to_date", "gann.wheel.price_to_date.monthly.square_of_nine": "gann.wheel.price_to_date" }, "events_and_three_nulls_by_partition": { "lineage_only": { "events_by_order": { "1": 623603, "2": 176544, "3": 42073, "4+": 9833 }, "pooled_channels_by_order": { "1": { "n": 623603, "mean_members": 1.21, "realised": 0.262351, "prior_mean": 0.273839, "lift": -0.011488, "best_member_rate": 0.266981, "best_member_chance": 0.272497, "best_member_lift": -0.005516, "event_minus_best_lift": -0.005972, "all_right_rate": 0.262351, "prod_marginal_mean": 0.280228, "agreement_excess": -0.017877 }, "2": { "n": 176544, "mean_members": 2.742, "realised": 0.189681, "prior_mean": 0.089578, "lift": 0.100102, "best_member_rate": 0.259171, "best_member_chance": 0.259425, "best_member_lift": -0.000254, "event_minus_best_lift": 0.100357, "all_right_rate": 0.189681, "prod_marginal_mean": 0.083314, "agreement_excess": 0.106367 }, "3": { "n": 42073, "mean_members": 4.083, "realised": 0.262639, "prior_mean": 0.202648, "lift": 0.05999, "best_member_rate": 0.236945, "best_member_chance": 0.230553, "best_member_lift": 0.006392, "event_minus_best_lift": 0.053598, "all_right_rate": 0.147054, "prod_marginal_mean": 0.023272, "agreement_excess": 0.123782 }, "4+": { "n": 9833, 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price->degree->date chain of DOCTRINE_GRAPH.md, one apparatus in both directions", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.017736, "surrogate_mean": -0.001411, "surrogate_sd": 0.020758, "n_universes": 12, "p": 0.846154, "p_floor": 0.076923, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.0, "surrogate_mean": 0.527775, "surrogate_sd": 0.300128, "n_universes": 12, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.076923, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 459 }, "cycle_spectral": { "assigned_kind": "iaaft", "why": "every rule assigned iaaft in rules/_surrogates.yaml — the doctrinal statement that its claim is a period/spectrum, including the four-nodes-one-_fit family of CONFLUENCE_MAP.md", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.023044, "surrogate_mean": 0.000505, "surrogate_sd": 0.007084, "n_universes": 12, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.076923, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.5, "surrogate_mean": 0.519308, "surrogate_sd": 0.1806, "n_universes": 12, "p": 0.769231, "p_floor": 0.076923, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 4462 }, "whole_system": { "assigned_kind": "stationary_bootstrap", "why": "every wired rule; the corpus voting as one system", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.014005, "surrogate_mean": 0.002792, "surrogate_sd": 0.006522, "n_universes": 12, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.076923, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.4167, "surrogate_mean": 0.556008, "surrogate_sd": 0.084087, "n_universes": 12, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.076923, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 9833 } }, "iaaft": { "volume_participation": { "assigned_kind": "stationary_bootstrap", "why": "every wired rule whose emitting module reads Bar.volume — the tape column the price path does not contain (CONFLUENCE_MAP.md Axis 2, plus woods.normal_reaction whose continuation clause gates on positive volume: woods.py 507ff)", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.015798, "surrogate_mean": 0.006598, "surrogate_sd": 0.036059, "n_universes": 8, "p": 0.666667, "p_floor": 0.111111, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.0, "surrogate_mean": 0.75, "surrogate_sd": 0.377964, "n_universes": 8, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.111111, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 215 }, "date_keyed": { "assigned_kind": "calendar_rotation", "why": "every rule assigned calendar_rotation in rules/_surrogates.yaml — the doctrinal statement that its claim is about the calendar", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.007273, "surrogate_mean": 0.002774, "surrogate_sd": 0.015135, "n_universes": 8, "p": 0.777778, "p_floor": 0.111111, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.4444, "surrogate_mean": 0.486113, "surrogate_sd": 0.213643, "n_universes": 8, "p": 0.777778, "p_floor": 0.111111, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 1835 }, "wheel": { "assigned_kind": "calendar_rotation", "why": "the six wheel arms — the price->degree->date chain of DOCTRINE_GRAPH.md, one apparatus in both directions", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.017736, "surrogate_mean": -0.004841, "surrogate_sd": 0.019731, "n_universes": 8, "p": 0.777778, "p_floor": 0.111111, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.0, "surrogate_mean": 0.374987, "surrogate_sd": 0.213641, "n_universes": 8, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.111111, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 459 }, "cycle_spectral": { "assigned_kind": "iaaft", "why": "every rule assigned iaaft in rules/_surrogates.yaml — the doctrinal statement that its claim is a period/spectrum, including the four-nodes-one-_fit family of CONFLUENCE_MAP.md", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.023044, "surrogate_mean": 0.006671, "surrogate_sd": 0.006791, "n_universes": 8, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.111111, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.5, "surrogate_mean": 0.658338, "surrogate_sd": 0.191693, "n_universes": 8, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.111111, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 4462 }, "whole_system": { "assigned_kind": "stationary_bootstrap", "why": "every wired rule; the corpus voting as one system", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.014005, "surrogate_mean": 0.005249, "surrogate_sd": 0.007273, "n_universes": 8, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.111111, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.4167, "surrogate_mean": 0.566675, "surrogate_sd": 0.111283, "n_universes": 8, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.111111, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 9833 } }, "stationary_bootstrap": { "volume_participation": { "assigned_kind": "stationary_bootstrap", "why": "every wired rule whose emitting module reads Bar.volume — the tape column the price path does not contain (CONFLUENCE_MAP.md Axis 2, plus woods.normal_reaction whose continuation clause gates on positive volume: woods.py 507ff)", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.015798, "surrogate_mean": 0.016862, "surrogate_sd": 0.029108, "n_universes": 24, "p": 0.88, "p_floor": 0.04, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.0, "surrogate_mean": 0.645833, "surrogate_sd": 0.375302, "n_universes": 24, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.04, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 215 }, "date_keyed": { "assigned_kind": "calendar_rotation", "why": "every rule assigned calendar_rotation in rules/_surrogates.yaml — the doctrinal statement that its claim is about the calendar", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.007273, "surrogate_mean": 0.007582, "surrogate_sd": 0.01408, "n_universes": 24, "p": 0.84, "p_floor": 0.04, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.4444, "surrogate_mean": 0.499996, "surrogate_sd": 0.128435, "n_universes": 24, "p": 0.84, "p_floor": 0.04, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 1835 }, "wheel": { "assigned_kind": "calendar_rotation", "why": "the six wheel arms — the price->degree->date chain of DOCTRINE_GRAPH.md, one apparatus in both directions", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.017736, "surrogate_mean": 0.004907, "surrogate_sd": 0.02037, "n_universes": 24, "p": 0.88, "p_floor": 0.04, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.0, "surrogate_mean": 0.555558, "surrogate_sd": 0.289386, "n_universes": 24, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.04, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 459 }, "cycle_spectral": { "assigned_kind": "iaaft", "why": "every rule assigned iaaft in rules/_surrogates.yaml — the doctrinal statement that its claim is a period/spectrum, including the four-nodes-one-_fit family of CONFLUENCE_MAP.md", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.023044, "surrogate_mean": -0.005415, "surrogate_sd": 0.010041, "n_universes": 24, "p": 0.96, "p_floor": 0.04, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.5, "surrogate_mean": 0.487896, "surrogate_sd": 0.2398, "n_universes": 24, "p": 0.64, "p_floor": 0.04, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 4462 }, "whole_system": { "assigned_kind": "stationary_bootstrap", "why": "every wired rule; the corpus voting as one system", "pooled_lift": { "real": -0.014005, "surrogate_mean": 0.005342, "surrogate_sd": 0.007301, "n_universes": 24, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.04, "at_floor": false }, "sign_rate": { "real": 0.4167, "surrogate_mean": 0.575271, "surrogate_sd": 0.073537, "n_universes": 24, "p": 1.0, "p_floor": 0.04, "at_floor": false }, "n_testable_real": 9833 } } }, "verdicts": [ "DETECTOR PROVEN: the planted oracle pair (a deliberately constructed real confluence edge) is detected at the p-floor of every surrogate universe — p <= 0.04 (stationary_bootstrap, 24 universes), p <= 0.0769 (calendar_rotation, 12), p <= 0.111 (iaaft, 8) — while the planted null pair is not (p = 0.64-0.78).", "CORPUS CONFLUENCE NOT DISTINGUISHED FROM SURROGATE MARKETS: the real order-2+ event lift (+10.60pp, n=133 events on this coarse grid) sits BELOW the surrogate mean on every universe family (vs +12.74pp calendar_rotation p=0.692, +11.23pp iaaft p=0.667, +14.05pp stationary_bootstrap p=0.84); the event-minus-best-member statistic is at p = 1.0 against all three.", "FAMILIES: no ex-ante family (volume_participation, date_keyed, wheel, cycle_spectral, whole_system) separates from its matched surrogate on pooled lift or sign rate; every p >= 0.64.", "READING: the confluence surplus the real ledger shows over naive independence reproduces on markets where nothing is real, so it is a property of how the rules co-fire, not of the market. The p-floors state the best resolution the current universe counts allow." ] } }